Neurofilament light chain level is a weak risk factor for the development of MS

OBJECTIVE To determine the prognostic value of selected biomarkers in clinically isolated syndromes (CIS) for conversion to multiple sclerosis (MS) and disability accrual. METHODS Data were acquired from 2 CIS cohorts. The screening phase evaluated patients developing clinically definite MS (CIS-CDMS) and patients who remained as CIS during a 2-year minimum follow-up (CIS-CIS). We determined levels of neurofascin, semaphorin 3A, fetuin A, glial fibrillary acidic protein, and neurofilament light (NfL) and heavy chains in CSF (estimated mean [95% confidence interval; CI]). We evaluated associations between biomarker levels, conversion, disability, and magnetic resonance parameters. In the replication phase, we determined NfL levels (n = 155) using a 900 ng/L cutoff. Primary endpoints in uni- and multivariate analyses were CDMS and 2010 McDonald MS. RESULTS The only biomarker showing significant differences in the screening was NfL (CIS-CDMS 1,553.1 [1,208.7-1,897.5] ng/L and CIS-CIS 499.0 [168.8-829.2] ng/L, p < 0.0001). The strongest associations were with brain parenchymal fraction change (rs = -0.892) and percentage brain volume change (rs = -0.842) at 5 years. NfL did not correlate with disability. In the replication phase, more NfL-positive patients, according to the cutoff, evolved to MS. Every 100-ng/L increase in NfL predicted CDMS (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.009, 95% CI 1.005-1.014) and McDonald MS (HR = 1.009, 95% CI 1.005-1.013), remaining significant for CDMS in the multivariate analysis (adjusted HR = 1.005, 95% CI 1.000-1.011). This risk was lower than the presence of oligoclonal bands or T2 lesions. CONCLUSIONS NfL is a weak independent risk factor for MS. Its role as an axonal damage biomarker may be more relevant as suggested by its association with medium-term brain volume changes.